Are You Ready for the Next Economic Downturn?

Steering Through Economic Waves: Thriving Amidst the Cycle's Downturn

Are You Ready for the Next Economic Downturn?

A recession marks a downturn in the economy, officially happening when a country’s GDP, or gross domestic product, is negative for two consecutive quarters, or six months. Despite the current strength of the economy, the U.S. has been in a phase of economic expansion since 2009—ten years, which is four years longer than the average expansion. It’s a classic case of the law of averages; what goes up, eventually comes down.

Recessions catch people off guard because definitive statistics aren’t available until the second quarter is over. So, you often don’t realize you’re in a recession until it’s behind you. The smart move? Prepare for a downturn when the times are good, like now.

Is a recession possible in 2019? Absolutely. While the economy is currently strong, we’re possibly in an overheating phase, which can lead to inflation and rising interest rates—the prime culprits of a recession. Other factors like an escalating trade war with China, a hard Brexit for the UK, a dip in consumer sentiment, and political changes could also trigger a downturn. Economic growth never continues indefinitely; it’s only a matter of time before it slows down.

To prepare for this inevitable downturn, consider taking these steps:

First, pay off your debt. Reducing debt increases your cash flow, and credit card debt should be your top priority due to its high interest rates. Mortgage debt is usually less pressing to eliminate because of tax benefits, but other debts should be tackled if their interest rates are over 7%.

Second, cut your spending. Save where you can. Skip a vacation and save that money for a rainy day. Cutting dining out expenses and possibly even your cable bill can produce significant savings. Put all the money you save into a savings account as a buffer for tough times ahead.

Next, increase your emergency savings. Unemployment during recessions can last longer than usual, averaging 30 weeks, and up to a year for those over 55. Aim to save enough to cover living expenses for at least a year without a paycheck.

Also, update your resume. Even if your job feels secure, companies often react to downturns by laying off employees. Enhance your skills and networking efforts. Knowing the right people can be more beneficial than what you know.

Additionally, consider getting a side gig. Freelancing on platforms like Upwork can provide an extra income stream. Everyone has unique skills that others might pay for, which can serve as a fallback if you lose your job.

Lastly, review your investment portfolio. Increase your exposure to money markets and short-term bonds instead of stocks to cushion against market drops. If the market does fall, remember that it always bounces back. Now might also be a good time to convert your 401(k) and traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. This move can help minimize capital gains taxes and provide tax-free growth.

A recession is coming—it’s only a matter of time. But by preparing now, you can ensure a softer landing when it hits. What are you doing to brace yourself for a potential economic downturn? Feel free to share your thoughts below.